MUMBAI: The Reserve Bank of India is expected to raise interest rates while announcing its monetary policy for 2011 in early May although the index of industrial production (IIP) points to a slowdown in investments.
Economists across the board are betting on at least a 25 basis points increase in key interest rates by RBI. "The IIP reading was weaker than expected, but the consumer goods component and readings from other indicators suggest that the economic growth is holding up well. This means that inflation is still the dominant concern, not growth. This calls for continued tightening by RBI," said Leif Lybecker Eskesen, chief economist for India & Asean, HSBC Global Markets, in a report. "This means that the RBI will have to continue to tighten monetary policy, at least by 75 bps in 2011 and with 25 bps expected at the next policy meeting," he said.
Following 4% growth in January (revised up from 3.7% earlier), IIP slowed to 3.6% year-on-year in February, lower than market expectations of a growth of around 5%. According to Rohini Malkani, chief economist with Citi, there is likely to be an uptrend in consumption due to wage increases and households raising money against gold holdings, which is no longer a 'dead asset'. "With inflation likely to stay sticky at ˜7.5% through FY12, we expect the RBI to raise rates by 75 bps through early 2012," she said in a report.
Also, consumption demand is expected to remain strong because of an improvement on the agriculture front. Advance estimates released by the ministry of agriculture peg foodgrain production in the previous fiscal at 236 million tones—an increase of over 8% over the previous year following normal monsoons. According to a Deutsche Bank report, rural income in India is likely to witness a meaningful jump in FY11 driven by the sharper-than-anticipated growth in agricultural production, coupled with a continuing—albeit modest—increase in minimum support prices.
"RBI has accorded less significance to IIP data in framing policy decisions. However, incrementally the information content in IIP data has only improved especially in terms of sequential trend. Nevertheless, we expect RBI to maintain a hawkish stance on inflation in response to accentuating inflationary pressure in core," said A Prasanna and Anurag Jha, ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, in a report on Monday.
According to Arun Singh, senior economist at Dun & Bradstreet, moderation in the investment activity on one hand and the building up of inflationary pressures, especially on manufactured products, on the other would add to the monetary policy dilemma for the RBI. "RBI is expected to increase repo and reverse repo rates by another 25 bps during the forthcoming policy review," he said.
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Economists across the board are betting on at least a 25 basis points increase in key interest rates by RBI. "The IIP reading was weaker than expected, but the consumer goods component and readings from other indicators suggest that the economic growth is holding up well. This means that inflation is still the dominant concern, not growth. This calls for continued tightening by RBI," said Leif Lybecker Eskesen, chief economist for India & Asean, HSBC Global Markets, in a report. "This means that the RBI will have to continue to tighten monetary policy, at least by 75 bps in 2011 and with 25 bps expected at the next policy meeting," he said.
Following 4% growth in January (revised up from 3.7% earlier), IIP slowed to 3.6% year-on-year in February, lower than market expectations of a growth of around 5%. According to Rohini Malkani, chief economist with Citi, there is likely to be an uptrend in consumption due to wage increases and households raising money against gold holdings, which is no longer a 'dead asset'. "With inflation likely to stay sticky at ˜7.5% through FY12, we expect the RBI to raise rates by 75 bps through early 2012," she said in a report.
Also, consumption demand is expected to remain strong because of an improvement on the agriculture front. Advance estimates released by the ministry of agriculture peg foodgrain production in the previous fiscal at 236 million tones—an increase of over 8% over the previous year following normal monsoons. According to a Deutsche Bank report, rural income in India is likely to witness a meaningful jump in FY11 driven by the sharper-than-anticipated growth in agricultural production, coupled with a continuing—albeit modest—increase in minimum support prices.
"RBI has accorded less significance to IIP data in framing policy decisions. However, incrementally the information content in IIP data has only improved especially in terms of sequential trend. Nevertheless, we expect RBI to maintain a hawkish stance on inflation in response to accentuating inflationary pressure in core," said A Prasanna and Anurag Jha, ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, in a report on Monday.
According to Arun Singh, senior economist at Dun & Bradstreet, moderation in the investment activity on one hand and the building up of inflationary pressures, especially on manufactured products, on the other would add to the monetary policy dilemma for the RBI. "RBI is expected to increase repo and reverse repo rates by another 25 bps during the forthcoming policy review," he said.
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