NEW DELHI: The Election Commission is likely to announce on March 1 the schedule for elections in five states, setting the stage for a contest which is crucial for both Congress and Left.
Government sources said that Commission is considering to stagger polls in West Bengal over five phases. For Assam, a two-phase poll seems likely, while elections in Tamil Nadu may be a one-day affair. Details for Kerala and Puducherry have also been worked out, making a March 1 notification a distinct possibility.
The ensuing polls are the first time since 1977 when CPM runs a real risk of losing power in West Bengal. With the party on the backfoot also in Kerala, another Left-controlled state where elections are due, the Marxists face the bleak prospect of losing power simultaneously in two of their strongholds. Having already been dislodged from power at the Centre, the polls could really aggravate the power drought for the Marxists.
If Marxists have to contend with fear of losses, for Congress the cruciality of the forthcoming encounter lies in the expectations the party has from it. The party is looking at a 4:1 scoreline: something it hopes will help reverse the perception of decline and can enable it to assert vis-a-vis not just the rivals and partners, but also in relation to the grandees within the government who have refused to heed the "perform-or-perish" signals from the leadership.
In West Bengal, the Congress is confident of sweeping the polls with its alliance partner, Trinamool.
The leadership balked at a major surgery last month because it was wary of repercussions for the budget session.
Both the PM and Congress have since indicated that the central ministry and the party organisation will be recast after the budget session, and a favourable outcome may give them the space as well as the confidence to attempt something bolder this time.
The party is confident of prevailing in Kerala. The state shuffles between the Congress-led UDF and CPM-led LDF every five years. The results of the Lok Sabha polls as well as local bodies suggest that the pattern may hold this year as well. In Assam, the party is confident of Tarun Gogoi retaining chief minister's post. It is encouraged by the strong possibility that AGP and BJP will not be able to have an alliance. Jama'at-ul-Ulema's attack on Badruddin Ajmal whose AUDF poached Muslim votes in the last elections is another comforting development. As a matter of fact, it expects to improve its seats this time.
While the party is confident of its prospects in Puducherry, it realises that it has a tough task on its hand in Tamil Nadu because of the deadly blend of inflation and spectrum stench hurting its partner DMK. Congress feels that the DMK will put up a tough fight. The Dravidian party is laying great store by the goodwill that it thinks populist schemes have generaated. It is also credited with perfecting the art of converting poll-time favours to voters into votes for the party.
Congress managers, however, feel that the advantages can be offset because of the stink over spectrum scam and unease over inflation. It also has to contend with Jayalalithaa's succeess in swinging an alliance with actor Vijaykanth's DMDK. 'Captain' has emerged as a factor in TN politics and an alliance will prevent the split in the anti-DMK votes.
TOI
Government sources said that Commission is considering to stagger polls in West Bengal over five phases. For Assam, a two-phase poll seems likely, while elections in Tamil Nadu may be a one-day affair. Details for Kerala and Puducherry have also been worked out, making a March 1 notification a distinct possibility.
The ensuing polls are the first time since 1977 when CPM runs a real risk of losing power in West Bengal. With the party on the backfoot also in Kerala, another Left-controlled state where elections are due, the Marxists face the bleak prospect of losing power simultaneously in two of their strongholds. Having already been dislodged from power at the Centre, the polls could really aggravate the power drought for the Marxists.
If Marxists have to contend with fear of losses, for Congress the cruciality of the forthcoming encounter lies in the expectations the party has from it. The party is looking at a 4:1 scoreline: something it hopes will help reverse the perception of decline and can enable it to assert vis-a-vis not just the rivals and partners, but also in relation to the grandees within the government who have refused to heed the "perform-or-perish" signals from the leadership.
In West Bengal, the Congress is confident of sweeping the polls with its alliance partner, Trinamool.
The leadership balked at a major surgery last month because it was wary of repercussions for the budget session.
Both the PM and Congress have since indicated that the central ministry and the party organisation will be recast after the budget session, and a favourable outcome may give them the space as well as the confidence to attempt something bolder this time.
The party is confident of prevailing in Kerala. The state shuffles between the Congress-led UDF and CPM-led LDF every five years. The results of the Lok Sabha polls as well as local bodies suggest that the pattern may hold this year as well. In Assam, the party is confident of Tarun Gogoi retaining chief minister's post. It is encouraged by the strong possibility that AGP and BJP will not be able to have an alliance. Jama'at-ul-Ulema's attack on Badruddin Ajmal whose AUDF poached Muslim votes in the last elections is another comforting development. As a matter of fact, it expects to improve its seats this time.
While the party is confident of its prospects in Puducherry, it realises that it has a tough task on its hand in Tamil Nadu because of the deadly blend of inflation and spectrum stench hurting its partner DMK. Congress feels that the DMK will put up a tough fight. The Dravidian party is laying great store by the goodwill that it thinks populist schemes have generaated. It is also credited with perfecting the art of converting poll-time favours to voters into votes for the party.
Congress managers, however, feel that the advantages can be offset because of the stink over spectrum scam and unease over inflation. It also has to contend with Jayalalithaa's succeess in swinging an alliance with actor Vijaykanth's DMDK. 'Captain' has emerged as a factor in TN politics and an alliance will prevent the split in the anti-DMK votes.
TOI
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